International Workshop Advances in Flood Forecasting and the Implications for Risk Management

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Background

Floods are major natural hazards affecting large areas and millions of people world-wide every year. They are a regularly recurring phenomenon with strong environmental and socio-economic impacts. Flood prevention and protection will be one of the most important challenges for all parties involved in flood risk management in the coming decades. It will be a continuous task of governmental bodies and scientific institutes, in close cooperation with society and business, to look for innovative methods for flood protection and prevention, especially in a transboundary context.

Recent developments in flood forecasting allow for better quantification of uncertainties that come with flood forecasting modelling. Information about uncertainties must be communicated to decision makers as well as to the general public. The change from pure deterministic to more probabilistic forecasts is a challenge for all stages of flood risk management.

The workshop will present recent developments, look for knowledge gaps and discuss new perspectives.

Objectives

To introduce new approaches in hydrological and meteorological forecasting
To discuss ways of assessing, communicating and accepting uncertainty
To improve practical decision making based on a better understanding of theory
To foster integrated approaches (model chain, risk assessment, decision and communication)
To explore ways of integrating predictive uncertainty into decision making processes
To address the benefits of forecasting systems

The International Commission for the Hydrology of the Rhine Basin (CHR) invites scientists, decision makers and stakeholders in the field of flood prediction, flood prevention and crisis management to discuss these issues during a two-day workshop.

Structure and workshop themes

The workshop is divided in three plenary working sessions:

Theme 1: New approaches to flood forecasting 

Keywords:

Forecasting systems (HYDROLOGY, METEOROLOGY)
Quantification of uncertainty
Ensemble and probabilistic forecasting

Theme 2: Aspects of decision making for flood damage prevention

Keywords:

Understanding and enhancing public's behavioural response to flood warning information
General principles of theory - versus actual practice
Boundary conditions and drivers of decision making (economy)
Integrated decision support systems (DSS)
Decision making under known uncertainty (risk informed decision making)

Theme 3: Acceptance and communication of flood warnings

Keywords:

Verification of forecast and warning
Assessment of predictive uncertainty
Communication of uncertainty
Communication systems
Human factor (psychological aspects of forecasting and warning)
Common language
Role of media/competing services
Training/preparedness

Organisers

The invitation to the event is issued by the International Commission for the Hydrology of the Rhine Basin (CHR) in cooperation with the COST731 Action, the Swiss Federal Office for the Environment, the German Federal Institute for Hydrology, the German IHP/HWRP Secretariat, the German Association of Hydrological Sciences, the Netherlands National Committee IHP-HWRP, and the Dutch Centre for Water Management.

Language

Working language of the workshop will be English. 

Downloads
Book of abstracts [5.08 MB]
Final report with conclusions and recommendations [895.98 KB]
Spreafico - Information on the CHR [3.48 MB]
Allewijn - Flood forecasting and crisis management in The Netherlands [1.97 MB]
Blöschl - Advances in flood forecasting and the implications for risk management [1.97 MB]
Ebel - Advances in flood forecasting with Delft FEWS [2.75 MB]
Becker - Meteorological ensemble forecasting [1.24 MB]
Todini - Quantification of uncertainty using Bayesian approaches [4.21 MB]
Zappa - The COST731 Action - Propagation of uncertainty from meteorology into hydrological models [3.96 MB]
Savenije - Anomalies in the Meuse behaviour and how to model flood events [2.21 MB]
Salamon - Two strategies for the quantification of uncertainty in the European Flood Alert System [2.08 MB]
Dietrich - Decision support systems and decision making under known uncertainty [830.45 KB]
Van Ruiten - Disaster management and dealing with the response on flooding [6.48 MB]
Brugnach - More information is not always better: Coping with uncertainty in adaptive water management [964.84 KB]
Merz - Quantification of uncertainty in flood risk assessments [3.37 MB]
Walser - On the way to ensemble hydrological forecasts: Lessons learned from MAP D-PHASE [5.16 MB]
Mahrholdt - Meet the press! Nobody cares about flood prevention [2.27 MB]
Bérod - Warning communication, communication warning [4.47 MB]
Schanne - The media do not report on forecasts, they report on events [75.42 KB]
Gutscher - The role of affect in communicating flood risks [450.17 KB]